The Race That Stops A Nation, my picks for the Melbourne Cup
A field of 24 horses equals 96 thundering hoofs going 2 miles on the turf, so large you might be better off printing out the entries on paper, hanging it on the wall, and throwing a dart, due to the fact that most of the field have not raced over a mile and a half, but what fun would that be?
#10 Flatten The Curve gate 17. Flatten The Curve, from Germany a 7-year-old gelding bred in France. Early US odds at 99-1, Flatten The Curve has been on fire, winning 6 of his last 7 races, 5 of them stakes races from a mile and 3 quarters to 2 and a half miles. He was 4th in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, which was run on a muddy track after being taken off the turf, a golden ticket event won by William Mott trained #18 Parchment Party. Flatten The Curve qualified for the Melbourne Cup by winning the Grade 2 (Group 2 race) Bowling Green Gold Cup at Kentucky Downs in the United States, a golden ticket event that offers an automatic birth into the Melbourne Cup field. The 2 1/16 miles Bowling Green Gold Cup at Kentucky Downs was his most brilliant victory. Jockey Thore Hammer Hansen, at little more than mid-stretch, looked over his shoulder and saw how far ahead of the field he was. He started to throttle down Flatten The Curve to an easy gallop across the finish line, winning by 5 and a half lengths.
#1 Al Riffa gate 19. Al Riffa, from Ireland, a 6-year-old bay horse (Stallion) bred in France, 1 of 2 horses entered, and trained by J P O’Brien. Early US odds at 7-1, in my opinion, the class of the field and the one to beat. Al Riffa won his last 2 Group 1 races by a combined 9 and a half lengths, both races at a little more than 1 3/4 miles.
#20 Goodie Two Shoes gate 20. Goodie Two Shoes, from Ireland, a 7-year-old bay Mare bred in Ireland; the other entry, trained by J P O’Brien, early US odds at 72-1. She has won three of five starts this year. Her trainer, Joseph Patrick O’Brien, has won the Melbourne Cup twice, his first in 2017 with Rekindling and his second in 2020 with Twilight Payment. In 2017, O’Brien was just 24 years old, making him the youngest trainer ever to win the Melbourne Cup. Both wins involved his horses finishing ahead of runners trained by his father, the world-class, celebrated trainer Aidan O’Brien. Joseph O’Brien has also won group 1 races in the US. Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1): Iridessa (IRE) won this race in 2019 at Santa Anita, marking O’Brien’s first US win as a trainer and making him the youngest trainer ever to win a Breeders’ Cup race. Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes (G1): State of Rest (IRE) won the inaugural running of this race in 2021. Belmont Gold Cup Stakes (G2): Baron Samedi (GB) won this race in 2021. One would expect he knows the kind of horse it takes to win the Melbourne Cup for a third time.
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